Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61ca…a1b4 weather 1550 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,965 (-13%) realized −$1,966 · open −$999
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate88%1290W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day76.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$668
7 days−$726
14 days−$1,227
30 days−$1,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$272
other 13% −$1,160
sports 3% −$625
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 460 -2.7% -11.9% 91% 29% -27.3%
≤30d 1458 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 43% -13.9%
≤90d 1458 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 43% -13.9%
all 1458 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 43% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 43% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 13% -22.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -29.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,975
Realized−$1,966
Unrealized−$999
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1290 / 168
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions94
Markets (closed)1458 / 1550
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day76.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 1458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $317 $261 −$57 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $200 $170 −$30 (-15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $193 $152 −$40 (-21%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 96¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 84¢ 85¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $203 $73 −$130 (-64%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 17¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $780 $69 −$711 (-91%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 60¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+272%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $34 $8 −$27 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $268 −$265 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,975.15 · official $1,974.76 (match) · 3500 history records