Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
61 0x61c3…3b7e other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$3
other 22% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% −$5
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -8.7%
all 44 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage472d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $64 +$3 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $9 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $8 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Dec 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -5%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $7 $0 +3%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bybit buy >$1b ETH by next Friday? May 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the Hart Trophy? Apr 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Mar 04 $5 +$3 +67%
Will SBF tweet again by Friday? Feb 28 $4 $0 +0%
Cal Irvine vs. CSU Fullerton Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $46 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $45 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $33 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $7 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.12 · official $17.12 (match) · 118 history records