Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61bb…3315 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$4
other 23% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +0.5% -9.0% 47% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.5% -9.0% 47% 0% -9.2%
all 39 -3.0% -12.3% 38% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage398d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $62 +$2 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 6? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -70%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $1 $0 +24%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 23 $7 −$6 -85%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $21 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $21 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $39 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $39 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.61 · official $35.17 (match) · 135 history records