Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x61b9…20a3
crypto · 130 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,444 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,361 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized+$1,361
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses63 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)125 / 130
History coverage95d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 5 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$76
14 days+$335
30 days+$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-53%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $126 +$6 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $525 +$71 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $95 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $203 −$10 -5%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $616 +$125 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $19 −$1 -3%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 03 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $482 +$18 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,277 +$108 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $361 +$22 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $3 +$8 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $3 +$1 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $19 +$4 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $419 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 23 $6 +$1 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $897 +$51 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $5 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 22 $1 +$2 +229%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $162 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $19 −$7 -34%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $728 +$87 +12%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 14 $9 −$4 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $228 +$48 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 10 $69 +$7 +10%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $233 +$139 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$555
other 33% +$687
crypto 5% +$123
tech 1% +$4
politics 1% −$2
sports 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 20¢ $24 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 21¢ $4 57m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $22 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $14 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +66.9% +51.0% 56% 22% -3.3%
≤30d 47 +47.3% +33.2% 40% 23% -2.9%
≤90d 120 +31.1% +18.6% 49% 28% -1.2%
all 125 +30.2% +17.8% 50% 29% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.8% 29% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here +6.5% 18% -10.7%
15% -3.8% 14% -19.3%
20% -13.2% 11% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.59 · official $30.60 (match) · 3500 history records