Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61b7…3d34 crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-16%) realized −$339 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%81W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$94
other 13% −$236
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +10.6% +0.0% 71% 65% +5.4%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 58% -63.2%
≤90d 28 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 57% -54.8%
all 136 +11.0% +0.4% 60% 51% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 51% -23.3%
10% -9.2% 38% -30.6%
15% -18.0% 28% -37.3%
20% -26.0% 24% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses81 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage150d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 77¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET Down 70¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $284 −$236 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10PM ET Apr 11 $1 −$3 -198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET Mar 29 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8AM ET Mar 28 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10AM ET Mar 24 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9AM ET Mar 24 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 24 $68 −$39 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $29 +$26 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 23 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 23 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 23 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7PM ET Mar 23 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6PM ET Mar 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET Mar 22 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 12 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2PM ET Mar 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9PM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 2 Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 11 $7 +$5 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 1¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 7¢ $47 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.18 · official $2.18 (match) · 322 history records