Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x61b5…63b0 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1 (+3%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$22
world 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +70.7% +54.5% 67% 67% +54.3%
≤30d 3 +70.7% +54.5% 67% 67% +54.3%
≤90d 3 +70.7% +54.5% 67% 67% +54.3%
all 3 +70.7% +54.5% 67% 67% +54.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.5% 67% +54.3%
10% +39.7% 67% +39.5%
15% +26.2% 67% +26.0%
20% +13.8% 67% +13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -81%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.24 · official $5.24 (match) · 7 history records