trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,576 | −$723 | -46% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $270 | +$1,529 | +566% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $12,033 | +$37,736 | +314% |
| Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $13 | +$49 | +361% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $2,364 | −$1,005 | -42% |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 24? | Apr 18 | $671 | +$113 | +17% |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | Apr 18 | $3,315 | +$711 | +21% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +277.8% | +241.9% | 67% | 67% | +241.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +230.4% | +199.0% | 60% | 60% | +199.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +170.1% | +144.3% | 71% | 71% | +162.2% |
| all | 7 | +170.1% | +144.3% | 71% | 71% | +162.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +144.3% | 71% | +162.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +121.0% | 43% | +137.1% |
| 15% | +99.6% | 43% | +114.2% |
| 20% | +80.0% | 43% | +93.2% |