Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

61 0x61b0…14db other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$27 (-15%) realized −$27 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 426d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-37.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+39.4%	+26.1%	100%	100%	+26.1%
≤30d	1	+39.4%	+26.1%	100%	100%	+26.1%
≤90d	1	+39.4%	+26.1%	100%	100%	+26.1%
all	2	-30.3%	-37.0%	50%	50%	-12.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.0%	50%	-12.9%
10%	-43.0%	50%	-21.2%
15%	-48.5%	50%	-28.8%
20%	-53.5%	0%	-35.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized−$27

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage426d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	92¢	$90	$90	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$61	+$24	+39%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Apr 23	$27	−$27	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$90	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	85¢	$85	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	60¢	$61	3h
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	19¢	$14	425d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	19¢	$14	425d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.49 · official $89.51 (match) · 5 history records