Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x61ad…12c9 crypto 332 markets active 24h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+4%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate70%232W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$134
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$52
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +4.9% -5.1% 75% 73% -5.4%
≤30d 319 +2.7% -7.1% 70% 68% -8.7%
≤90d 332 +2.6% -7.2% 70% 67% -8.2%
all 332 +2.6% -7.2% 70% 67% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 67% -8.2%
10% -16.0% 46% -17.0%
15% -24.2% 25% -25.0%
20% -31.6% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses232 / 100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)332 / 332
History coverage49d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 332 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$17 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$15 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$10 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$16 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$10 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$7 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$7 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$5 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$18 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $28 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $28 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $13 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $28 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $7 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $21 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $18 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $29 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $12 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $29 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $28 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 874 history records