Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61ac…4781 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,540 (-25%) realized −$13,034 · open −$506
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%78W / 211L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day142.7pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$3,894
14 days−$2,397
30 days−$7,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$6,571
other 18% −$1,771
sports 15% +$2,063
world 1% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -61.8% -65.4% 16% 14% -37.9%
≤30d 289 -28.4% -35.2% 27% 25% -22.0%
≤90d 289 -28.4% -35.2% 27% 25% -22.0%
all 289 -28.4% -35.2% 27% 25% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 25% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 23% -29.4%
15% -47.1% 21% -36.3%
20% -52.3% 19% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$125 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$13,034
Unrealized−$506
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses78 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions11
Markets (closed)289 / 274
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$196
Trades / day142.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 38¢ $320 $187 −$132 (-41%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $87 $118 +$32 (+37%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $90 $55 −$35 (-39%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $63 $47 −$16 (-26%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $85 $42 −$42 (-50%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Over 16¢ 4¢ $80 $22 −$57 (-72%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 2¢ $75 $12 −$63 (-84%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $41 $9 −$31 (-77%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $22 $7 −$15 (-68%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 1¢ $46 $6 −$40 (-87%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $105 $1 −$104 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$26 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$14 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Gold Card" or "Trump card" during the 2026 State of th Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $306 +$194 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $805 +$195 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $237 +$107 +45%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $871 +$377 +43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $118 −$118 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $485 +$515 +106%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $339 +$410 +121%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $283 +$216 +76%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $299 +$201 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $532 −$527 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 31m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $256 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $69 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.93 · official $507.93 (match) · 3500 history records