Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61aa…28e6 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$141 (-15%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$51
finance 20% −$23
world 18% $0
politics 17% $0
other 7% −$17
sports 6% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -13.0% -21.2% 54% 27% -10.3%
≤90d 35 -22.1% -29.5% 49% 29% -23.1%
all 39 -19.9% -27.5% 46% 28% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 28% -24.3%
10% -34.4% 28% -31.6%
15% -40.8% 26% -38.2%
20% -46.6% 23% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage113d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 26 $160 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $170 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $60 +$20 +33%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $70 +$28 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET Apr 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6AM ET Mar 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3AM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 18 $12 +$38 +300%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $172 −$23 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $86 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $86 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $84 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $84 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 97¢ $1 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $1 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 95¢ $19 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records