Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

61 0x61aa…7f11 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$17 (+7%) realized −$3 · open +$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate30%7W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$48

7 days+$18

14 days+$18

30 days+$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-10.5%	-19.0%	32%	27%	+2.4%
≤30d	23	-14.4%	-22.5%	30%	26%	-1.1%
≤90d	23	-14.4%	-22.5%	30%	26%	-1.1%
all	23	-14.4%	-22.5%	30%	26%	-1.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.5%	26%	-1.1%
10%	-29.9%	26%	-10.6%
15%	-36.7%	26%	-19.2%
20%	-42.9%	26%	-27.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -67% → late +34% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$128

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$20

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses7 / 16

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage21d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	22¢	26¢	$97	$117	+$20 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	31¢	32¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$12	+$16	+132%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$4	+$5	+129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$7	−$7	-98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$4	+$10	+250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	−$2	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 14	$8	+$42	+531%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$21	+$15	+70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	Jun 13	$3	$0	+6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$4	+$6	+152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	May 26	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	23¢	$3	34m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	SELL Natus Vincere	100¢	$28	35m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	36¢	$7	46m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL G2	64¢	$9	47m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	35¢	$5	1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	38¢	$5	1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	46¢	$7	2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	6¢	$2	3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	42¢	$5	3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	43¢	$4	5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	29¢	$10	6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	41¢	$10	6h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	21¢	$3	18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$4	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$49	21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Team Falcons	9¢	$1	23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Team Falcons	9¢	$1	23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Team Falcons	25¢	$5	23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	BUY BetBoom Team	8¢	$2	26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	BUY BetBoom Team	11¢	$3	27h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	BUY BetBoom Team	18¢	$5	27h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL TheMongolz	100¢	$36	27h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	58¢	$21	29h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	BUY BetBoom Team	38¢	$10	2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY MOUZ	17¢	$2	2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	SELL MOUZ	28¢	$3	2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	BUY MOUZ	25¢	$3	2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	BUY PARIVISION	40¢	$3	2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	BUY Monte	22¢	$4	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.72 · official $127.72 (match) · 43 history records