Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
61 0x61a8…519d sports 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,183 (-6%) realized −$2,314 · open +$131
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%74W / 56L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$401est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$750
7 days−$1,236
14 days−$1,236
30 days−$3,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,016
other 5% −$1,061
world 1% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -40.6% -46.2% 36% 36% -46.4%
≤30d 39 -22.6% -30.0% 44% 44% -35.3%
≤90d 129 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 56% -14.4%
all 130 -4.6% -13.6% 57% 55% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 55% -16.2%
10% -21.9% 55% -24.3%
15% -29.5% 48% -31.6%
20% -36.4% 33% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$258 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized−$2,314
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses74 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$401
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage146d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 48¢ 62¢ $243 $316 +$73 (+30%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $256 $314 +$58 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 −$198 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $474 −$467 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $168 −$166 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $298 +$170 +57%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $340 −$336 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $440 +$151 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $328 +$159 +48%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $116 +$132 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 −$196 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$297 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $191 −$188 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $498 −$488 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $200 −$196 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $193 −$190 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $371 −$365 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $296 +$169 +57%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 25 $274 +$325 +118%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $262 +$116 +44%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 25 $279 −$274 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $580 +$197 +34%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner May 25 $298 +$162 +54%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 25 $201 −$199 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $354 +$329 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 24 $393 −$386 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $458 −$452 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $709 −$700 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $289 −$285 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $177 −$174 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 21 $386 −$381 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $357 +$260 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $207 +$87 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $353 −$350 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $208 +$219 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $407 +$298 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $253 +$144 +57%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $343 −$340 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $143 +$308 +216%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $279 +$271 +97%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $380 +$181 +48%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $208 +$149 +72%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) May 18 $249 +$190 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $156 +$247 +158%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $464 −$460 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 17 $146 +$67 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $148 +$481 +324%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs DarkZero Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Majo May 17 $300 +$452 +150%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) May 16 $198 −$195 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $200 −$196 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $315 −$310 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $258 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $247 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $199 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $174 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $300 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $168 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $298 26h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 59¢ $99 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $193 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $591 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 62¢ $48 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $138 39h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 75¢ $302 39h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $487 39h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 65¢ $101 40h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 66¢ $228 40h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $248 40h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 46¢ $116 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $200 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $302 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $191 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 43¢ $1 22d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 35¢ $336 22d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 34¢ $161 22d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 32¢ $200 22d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA 41¢ $305 22d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Cavaliers 45¢ $193 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 47¢ $371 23d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $296 23d
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $599 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.46 · official $621.89 · 249 history records