Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61a6…ccd0 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day58.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$8
other 7% −$3
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +10.1% -0.4% 65% 38% -8.7%
≤30d 26 +10.1% -0.4% 65% 38% -8.7%
≤90d 26 +10.1% -0.4% 65% 38% -8.7%
all 26 +10.1% -0.4% 65% 38% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 38% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 19% -17.5%
15% -18.7% 15% -25.4%
20% -26.6% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day58.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+29%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $56 −$4 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +196%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $17 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $21 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $22 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $22 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 57m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 59m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.86 · official $36.86 (match) · 84 history records