Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61a1…850c crypto 57 markets active 3d ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-4%) realized +$70 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%52W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$141
crypto 17% −$4
other 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 0% -15.1%
≤30d 53 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 53 -3.4% -12.6% 94% 0% -15.1%
all 55 -1.9% -11.2% 95% 4% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -13.8%
10% -19.7% 2% -22.1%
15% -27.5% 2% -29.6%
20% -34.6% 2% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses52 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage94d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 8¢ 4¢ $48 $24 −$24 (-49%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 5¢ $137 $20 −$117 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I? Jun 12 $40 −$11 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $16 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $32 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $168 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $142 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $75 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $74 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $8 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $8 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $70 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $82 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $13 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $20 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $112 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $28 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $62 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $84 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $84 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $32 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $31 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $105 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.30 · official $44.30 (match) · 178 history records