Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x61a1…ef30 other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 25% −$24
economics 7% −$10
politics 7% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage134d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $428 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $291 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $568 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $509 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $421 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $351 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $314 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $473 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,181 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $172 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 49m
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 4h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 11h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 13h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 23h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 24h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 29h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 30h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 32h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 34h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 44h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.99 · official $55.99 (match) · 1419 history records