Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x61a0…0ae9
crypto · 810 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses388 / 395
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions28
Markets (closed)783 / 810
History coverage55d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day53.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 28 History 783 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$52
14 days−$185
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+193%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 49¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 93¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? No 31¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$6 +99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$8 +125%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$4 +120%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$1 -17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $41 +$43 +104%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $8 +$4 +52%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +106%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -16%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -57%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$10 +126%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -22%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 07 $3 +$4 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$246
sports 31% −$200
crypto 10% −$26
politics 8% −$5
other 8% −$13
tech 5% −$7
finance 2% −$14
economics 1% +$2
weather 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 48m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 90¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 44¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 84¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 80¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 39¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 56¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 29¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $6 3h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 63¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L BUY Eternal Fire Academy 27¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 74¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 78¢ $1 4h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +14.4% +3.5% 51% 45% +8.8%
≤30d 321 -6.0% -15.0% 37% 32% -17.0%
≤90d 783 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 41% -9.5%
all 783 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 41% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 32% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.32 · official $29.32 (match) · 3500 history records