Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x619e…0149 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-2%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%75W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$200
other 22% −$229
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.8% +8.4% 55% 45% -13.7%
≤30d 11 +19.8% +8.4% 55% 45% -13.7%
≤90d 129 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 57% -10.0%
all 129 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 57% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 57% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 52% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 39% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 23% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses75 / 54
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 142
History coverage63d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $18 +$12 +67%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $21 −$1 -3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $23 +$2 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND United States Jun 20 $20 +$60 +293%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switze Jun 19 $10 +$5 +53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 +$7 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 03 $40 +$10 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 03 $73 −$73 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $60 −$57 -94%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 03 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $25 +$12 +48%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $40 +$13 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $20 +$14 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 02 $20 +$10 +48%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $30 +$20 +67%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $30 −$25 -83%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $50 +$9 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $30 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $61 +$24 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $30 +$27 +90%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Apr 30 $30 +$20 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $71 +$33 +47%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $39 −$38 -99%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $29 −$29 -99%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $33 −$33 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 30 $40 +$11 +27%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $52 −$6 -12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $102 −$82 -80%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Apr 29 $39 +$11 +27%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $41 +$19 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $42 +$11 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $59 +$19 +33%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 29 $30 +$29 +97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $79 +$21 +27%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $30 +$11 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win BUY 47¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $30 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY 25¢ $15 5h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY $31 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 59¢ $18 12h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 67¢ $20 12h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $21 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3 BUY 54¢ $15 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $25 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $13 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 48¢ $12 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND United States BUY 25¢ $20 23h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U BUY 38¢ $10 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U BUY 23¢ $26 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosn BUY 39¢ $9 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switze BUY 65¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 14¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread BUY 11¢ $5 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argenti BUY 15¢ $36 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 61¢ $25 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 49¢ $41 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 31¢ $20 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $14 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Nethe BUY 19¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $55.00 · 343 history records