Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
61 0x6196…e13c crypto 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,730 (+1%) realized +$1,715 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%89W / 39L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$897per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,099
7 days+$3,097
14 days+$3,096
30 days+$3,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,845
other 22% +$591
crypto 9% +$654
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +3.9% -6.0% 73% 24% -7.1%
≤30d 38 +1.2% -8.4% 71% 24% -7.1%
≤90d 43 -1.6% -10.9% 70% 28% -7.1%
all 128 -3.0% -12.3% 70% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 41% -7.1%
10% -20.7% 25% -16.0%
15% -28.3% 15% -24.1%
20% -35.4% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$3 · ×10.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.58 per $1 lost it wins $23.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$518
Realized+$1,715
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses89 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)128 / 131
History coverage154d
Avg bet$897
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain to win the second half? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10,012 +$406 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $495 +$5 +1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5,001 +$42 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $9,712 +$250 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $2,001 +$24 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $14,917 +$564 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,736 +$52 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,715 +$24 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $24,572 +$248 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24,097 +$521 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$2 +5%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $1,401 +$42 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10,009 +$295 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10,811 +$679 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +42%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $11 +$1 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -77%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $9 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -39%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -80%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$5 +511%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +240%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $6 +$1 +21%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 12 $1 +$1 +52%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 08 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 08 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $9,010 41m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $502 44m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $71 50m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10,012 53m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $495 55m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,997 55m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 56m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2,001 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $233 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 99¢ $5,001 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $201 1h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15,481 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $13,216 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,702 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,788 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,736 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,738 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $214 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $500 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $500 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $500 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $23,582 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $256 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $40 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $632 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.88 · official $517.88 (match) · 348 history records