Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6195…b1cc crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-6%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$176
other 7% +$10
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.3% -20.6% 57% 48% -1.9%
≤30d 41 -31.2% -37.8% 41% 37% -19.7%
≤90d 41 -31.2% -37.8% 41% 37% -19.7%
all 41 -31.2% -37.8% 41% 37% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 37% -19.7%
10% -43.7% 17% -27.4%
15% -49.2% 17% -34.4%
20% -54.1% 10% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $63 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $74 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 01 $92 −$45 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $46 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 01 $115 −$29 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 01 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $103 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $10 +$20 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $21 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 5¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $139 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $50.00 · 88 history records