Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6195…388a
sports · 1162 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$520 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$671 · open −$151
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,734
Realized+$671
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses533 / 485
Est. fees paid−$687
Open positions144
Markets (closed)1018 / 1162
History coverage78d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 144 History 1018 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$368
7 days+$667
14 days+$1,761
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 84¢ 99¢ $160 $189 +$29 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $105 $117 +$12 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 95¢ $100 $112 +$11 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 86¢ $82 $108 +$26 (+31%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 51¢ 91¢ $59 $106 +$47 (+79%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 62¢ $75 $92 +$17 (+23%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 61¢ 88¢ $62 $89 +$27 (+43%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $71 $81 +$10 (+15%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 82¢ 88¢ $72 $78 +$6 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $68 $78 +$10 (+15%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $76 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 68¢ 78¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+15%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $65 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 82¢ 99¢ $55 $66 +$12 (+21%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? No 78¢ 80¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 68¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 40¢ 50¢ $51 $63 +$12 (+24%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 88¢ 88¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 72¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ 40¢ $70 $59 −$11 (-16%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 75¢ 74¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $26 +$29 +108%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $68 +$46 +68%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $32 +$26 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $42 +$11 +26%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $43 +$11 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $33 +$19 +57%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 $0 -4%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $53 +$5 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $13 +$13 +105%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $32 −$10 -30%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $67 +$48 +72%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $34 +$4 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $29 +$6 +20%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $46 −$46 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $33 +$57 +172%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $61 −$5 -8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $52 +$33 +64%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $37 +$29 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 +$24 +42%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $45 +$25 +55%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$44 +140%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 +$27 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $50 +$28 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 11 $36 +$12 +33%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $35 +$14 +42%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $18 −$17 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $62 +$13 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $25 +$42 +170%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $91 +$21 +24%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $48 +$11 +23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $40 +$38 +97%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $39 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $27 −$1 -3%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $51 +$29 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$730
world 10% +$127
other 8% −$162
politics 5% −$97
culture 1% −$246
tech 0% +$236
finance 0% −$77
economics 0% +$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 36¢ $9 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 77¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $25 1h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 58¢ $33 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 61¢ $36 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 88¢ $62 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $11 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $12 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $1 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $13 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $18 3h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 48¢ $26 3h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $24 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $3 3h
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $22 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $32 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $47 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $55 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $51 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $44 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $47 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $76 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 +7.2% -3.0% 58% 55% -1.7%
≤30d 867 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 47% -9.5%
≤90d 1018 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 46% -8.3%
all 1018 -3.8% -12.9% 52% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 46% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -17.1%
15% -28.9% 35% -25.1%
20% -35.8% 30% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,733.76 · official $5,733.47 (match) · 2884 history records