Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6194…0c48
world · 83 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$17 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage531d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 4 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 64¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 51¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $51 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $90 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $51 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $149 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $76 +$14 +18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $2 −$1 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $23 +$6 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $58 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $46 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $54 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $44 +$5 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $46 +$2 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $86 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $5 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$25
other 18% −$7
politics 15% +$2
sports 12% −$5
economics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $54 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $65 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $28 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $7 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $17 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $51 13h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $18 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $59 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $64 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $16 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $48 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $49 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 10% -7.7%
≤30d 26 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 12% -7.7%
≤90d 73 -0.4% -9.8% 36% 5% -8.6%
all 79 +2.0% -7.7% 37% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 9% -9.0%
10% -16.5% 6% -17.7%
15% -24.6% 4% -25.7%
20% -32.0% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.80 · official $56.79 · 359 history records