Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x618d…2bb8 weather 706 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%692W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$22
14 days−$12
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 240 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 690 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 705 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses692 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage95d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? Jun 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $30 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $29 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.94 · official $29.94 (match) · 2412 history records