Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x618c…1df2
crypto · 1565 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$52 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1157 / 407
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1564 / 1565
History coverage47d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1564 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$13
14 days−$208
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 371 -2.8% -12.0% 76% 76% -12.0%
≤30d 897 -17.3% -25.2% 63% 62% -25.8%
≤90d 1564 -1.4% -10.8% 74% 63% -11.6%
all 1564 -1.4% -10.8% 74% 63% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 63% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 35% -20.1%
15% -27.1% 15% -27.8%
20% -34.2% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $1.05 · 3500 history records