Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x618c…7b5b other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$148 (-28%) realized −$182 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$126
politics 19% +$30
sports 10% −$53
culture 2% +$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.9% +38.3% 75% 75% +34.7%
≤30d 7 +17.0% +5.8% 71% 43% -17.7%
≤90d 8 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 50% -16.3%
all 12 -20.8% -28.3% 50% 33% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 33% -51.3%
10% -35.2% 33% -56.0%
15% -41.4% 25% -60.3%
20% -47.2% 17% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$37 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage597d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+61%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -35%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? May 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 08 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-10-27? Nov 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.59 · official $171.60 (match) · 130 history records