Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6189…8f69 sports 648 markets active 3h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$987 (-12%) realized −$971 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%316W / 328L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$126
14 days−$419
30 days−$1,632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$477
sports 45% −$1,525
world 1% −$2
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.9% -30.3% 42% 38% -26.6%
≤30d 164 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 49% -54.8%
≤90d 233 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 44% -49.8%
all 644 -1.8% -11.1% 49% 44% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 44% -22.2%
10% -19.6% 38% -29.6%
15% -27.4% 32% -36.4%
20% -34.5% 26% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$971
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses316 / 328
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions4
Markets (closed)644 / 648
History coverage159d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $55 $78 +$23 (+42%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 40¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 10¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 278 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $46 +$4 +8%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$141 +276%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $296 −$293 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 04 $6 +$8 +134%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $10 +$11 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $9 +$7 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $24 −$23 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $19 −$19 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $556 −$550 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $154 −$152 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $243 −$241 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $47 −$46 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $19 +$35 +180%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $5 +$6 +109%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $18 −$17 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $74 +$20 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $22 −$21 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $10 +$17 +172%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $11 +$15 +146%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1 +$2 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $50 3h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Alexis Galarneau 40¢ $12 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 91¢ $46 5h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 4¢ $5 5h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 33¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $51 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $20 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $10 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 43h
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $20 43h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.35 · official $149.83 (match) · 1447 history records