Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6185…58fe world 37 markets active 3h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 27% −$1
politics 10% −$1
crypto 10% +$2
sports 9% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 37 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage317d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $76 −$4 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $38 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $19 +$2 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $70 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 10 $2 $0 -14%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $1 $0 +17%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? Aug 06 $82 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $35 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $23 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $14 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $37 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 33h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $38 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $12 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $20 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $19 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records