Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6183…9931 world 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$2
other 26% −$6
politics 13% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.2%
all 51 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage426d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 73¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $93 −$6 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $42 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 +$1 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 06 $23 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $18 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Knicks vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $2 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $1 $0 -10%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $42 20m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 23m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $23 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $23 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $44 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $43 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $20 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $20 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $44 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $49 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $48 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $17 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $17 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $33 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.61 · official $41.61 (match) · 159 history records