Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
61 0x617c…e3fd crypto 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate91%351W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$37
14 days+$28
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.0% -7.8% 95% 24% -8.2%
≤30d 346 +0.5% -9.1% 91% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 385 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 41% -9.5%
all 385 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 41% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$34 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses351 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)385 / 385
History coverage33d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 385 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $150 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $108 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $134 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $89 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $85 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $117 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$8 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $76 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $65 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $150 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $101 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $134 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $39 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 912 history records