Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6173…0b4e sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+9%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$30
sports 36% −$25
world 2% −$10
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.4% -21.7% 45% 41% -11.3%
≤30d 49 -13.4% -21.7% 45% 41% -11.3%
≤90d 49 -13.4% -21.7% 45% 41% -11.3%
all 49 -13.4% -21.7% 45% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 41% -11.3%
10% -29.1% 39% -19.8%
15% -36.0% 33% -27.6%
20% -42.3% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -57%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$5 -54%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 −$9 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$23 +95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 −$3 -56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +44%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +54%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $8 +$2 +25%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$14 +92%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +81%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$11 +213%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 +$3 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$14 +273%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $44 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $9 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $69 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 25¢ $5 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 51¢ $10 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $11 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $5 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 21¢ $4 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 94¢ $9 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $7 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 22¢ $3 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $10 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 71¢ $6 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $5 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 9¢ $2 44h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.79 · official $43.79 (match) · 94 history records