Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6173…64d2 crypto 735 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$808 (+1%) realized +$808 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate74%633W / 218L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$415
other 1% +$130
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -72.1% -74.8% 18% 11% -81.0%
≤30d 221 -56.4% -60.6% 32% 15% -66.2%
≤90d 696 -19.7% -27.3% 70% 17% -23.1%
all 851 -13.4% -21.7% 74% 16% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 16% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 6% -26.4%
15% -36.0% 4% -33.6%
20% -42.3% 3% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$70 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$808
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses633 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)851 / 735
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 851 Trades
no open positions (193 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 12AM ET Jun 20 $78 −$82 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 3AM ET Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $569 −$569 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $161 −$161 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Jun 20 $269 −$269 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9AM ET Jun 20 $456 −$456 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 12AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 4AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 5AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$45 -626%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 11AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $166 −$166 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$45 -180%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 9AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $167 −$157 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 1AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $78 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $48 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $39 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 22h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $59 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records