Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x6172…40ca
sports · 43 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$18 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$124 · open −$106
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$209
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage187d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 3 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$111
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 48¢ 34¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-30%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17? Yes 16¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Bulls Bulls 57¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? No 28¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Yes 55¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Scotland 44¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 47¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? No 54¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Gujarat Titans $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 40¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Flames vs. Kings Kings 54¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 44¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Jazz Mavericks 49¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hawks 76ers 37¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17? Yes 16¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Nets Bucks 53¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 40¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 12¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $314 $0 −$314 (-100%)
Kraken vs. Utah Kraken 27¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $236 +$258 +109%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $276 −$40 -14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $318 −$314 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $25 +$16 +63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $225 +$98 +44%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $99 −$99 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $125 +$165 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $298 +$178 +60%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Dec 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Dec 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on De Dec 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Dec 16 $16 +$29 +183%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 16 $26 +$50 +191%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 16 $27 +$32 +120%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Dec 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Dec 15 $25 +$100 +400%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Dec 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Dec 14 $26 −$26 -100%
76ers vs. Hawks Dec 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Flames vs. Kings Dec 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Dec 14 $15 +$14 +94%
Knicks vs. Magic Dec 14 $25 +$14 +56%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 −$19 -94%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Dec 13 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 13 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 13 $35 +$62 +178%
Kraken vs. Utah Dec 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Dec 13 $29 +$21 +71%
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-12? Dec 12 $13 +$16 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$13
sports 31% +$119
politics 28% −$77
crypto 3% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $236 22h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $236 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $318 29h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 42h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $41 42h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $25 43h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $34 44h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $25 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $225 2d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 68¢ $253 11d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 11d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 11d
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh BUY Scotland 44¢ $99 11d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans $10 13d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 98¢ $290 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $51 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 45¢ $4 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 45¢ $16 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 45¢ $54 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down $5 24d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.4% -4.7% 57% 57% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 46% +1.3%
≤90d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 46% +1.3%
all 40 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 45% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 45% -4.9%
10% -17.7% 45% -14.0%
15% -25.6% 45% -22.3%
20% -32.9% 40% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.86 · official $208.86 (match) · 98 history records