Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6170…da27 crypto 1359 markets active 2d ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,116 (-6%) realized −$1,116 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%768W / 1021L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$384
7 days−$405
14 days−$393
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$479
crypto 43% −$536
other 3% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -98.4% -98.5% 0% 0% -25.9%
≤30d 491 -86.2% -87.5% 7% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 1789 -28.1% -34.9% 43% 43% -11.0%
all 1789 -28.1% -34.9% 43% 43% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 43% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 42% -19.5%
15% -46.8% 41% -27.3%
20% -52.0% 29% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses768 / 1021
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1789 / 1359
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1789 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Player 194 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Alanyaspor: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Erin Doherty win Best Supporting Performance (TV) at the 41st Fil Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ian Matteoli (ITA) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on February 20? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Owen Cooper win Best Breakthrough Performance (TV) at the 41st Fi Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 20? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on February 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: Joblife vs Mandatory - Map 3 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: DRG (-1.5) vs GnG Amazigh (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Martino Carollo (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 11, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bulgaria win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dane Menzies (NZL) win the gold medal for Snowboard Slopestyle - Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 16 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Podulsky/Allan (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jesper Nelin (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: B Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will BNK FEARX win the LCK Cup 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on February 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jonathan Marchessault win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
CD Los Chankas vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or below on February Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on February 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: EVOPLAY vs Boars Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Gracheva vs. Sakkari: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on February 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $40? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jules Chappaz (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $24 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $48 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $49 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $24 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $25 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $9 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $50 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $49 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $25 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $24 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $14 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $26 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $28 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $18 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $35 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $16 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $17 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $18 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $18 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records