Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
61 0x616f…9f5a crypto 2020 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$941 (-11%) realized −$942 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%1169W / 886L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$21
14 days+$103
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$659
sports 0% +$8
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 592 -19.2% -26.9% 40% 40% -10.6%
≤30d 1382 -3.1% -12.4% 53% 52% -11.0%
≤90d 2055 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 54% -10.2%
all 2055 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 54% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 54% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 49% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 41% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 36% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$942
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses1169 / 886
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2055 / 2020
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2055 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.93 (match) · 3500 history records