Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x616d…24df crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$579 (-13%) realized −$803 · open +$224
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$579
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -37.4% -43.4% 28% 28% -26.8%
≤30d 18 -37.4% -43.4% 28% 28% -26.8%
≤90d 18 -37.4% -43.4% 28% 28% -26.8%
all 18 -37.4% -43.4% 28% 28% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 28% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 22% -33.8%
15% -53.7% 22% -40.2%
20% -58.3% 22% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$328 vs −$188 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$803
Unrealized+$224
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 11¢ 30¢ $125 $349 +$224 (+179%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $267 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $209 −$86 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $239 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $320 −$207 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $751 +$1,125 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $623 −$309 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $526 −$526 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $208 +$369 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$125 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $74 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $32 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $29 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $78 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $122 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $21 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $86 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $55 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $52 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $31 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $77 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $39 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $62 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.03 · official $563.54 · 73 history records