Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x616a…5046 sports 32 markets active 3h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,330 (+21%) realized +$3,342 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$311
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% -8.4%
≤30d 3 +23.2% +11.5% 67% 67% -1.9%
≤90d 4 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 50% -8.5%
all 31 +12.4% +1.7% 71% 68% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 68% +11.8%
10% -8.0% 45% +1.1%
15% -16.9% 39% -8.7%
20% -25.1% 23% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$624) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$247 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$1,499
Realized+$3,342
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage224d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 61¢ 60¢ $1,511 $1,499 −$12 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $589 +$921 +156%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $903 −$902 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2,211 +$293 +13%
Nets vs. Jazz Mar 30 $266 −$266 -100%
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 15 $1,010 +$412 +41%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 30 $379 +$187 +49%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 29 $684 +$945 +138%
Kings vs. Knicks Jan 28 $1,751 +$333 +19%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva Jovic Jan 27 $1,386 +$264 +19%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 26 $1,115 +$372 +33%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Jan 23 $624 +$491 +79%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 16 $386 −$386 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $270 +$116 +43%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 11 $161 +$107 +67%
Suns vs. Rockets Jan 06 $215 +$79 +37%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $231 −$231 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jan 03 $57 +$40 +70%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 31 $186 −$186 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $179 +$63 +35%
Seattle Redhawks vs. UTSA Roadrunners Dec 23 $272 +$56 +20%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 13 $276 +$709 +257%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 07 $194 +$76 +39%
Ducks vs. Blackhawks Dec 01 $16 +$19 +113%
Oilers vs. Panthers Nov 23 $155 +$25 +16%
Blackhawks vs. Red Wings Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Kings vs. Penguins Nov 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks Nov 23 $57 −$57 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nov 18 $180 +$14 +8%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zv Nov 14 $88 +$12 +14%
Pacers vs. Warriors Nov 11 $84 +$16 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $16 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $185 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $189 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $22 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $12 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $136 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $545 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $424 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $48 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $515 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $26 13h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $618 20h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $12 20h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $205 20h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $41 20h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $27 20h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1,623 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $12 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $576 8d
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Elijah Smith 71¢ $253 98d
UFC Fight Night: SuYoung You vs. Elijah Smith (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Elijah Smith 71¢ $757 98d
Nets vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 58¢ $266 141d
Rockets vs. Hawks BUY Rockets 67¢ $379 142d
Spurs vs. Rockets BUY Spurs 42¢ $684 143d
Kings vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 84¢ $1,751 144d
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Iva Jovic BUY Sabalenka 84¢ $1,386 145d
Celtics vs. Nets BUY Celtics 75¢ $1,115 148d
Heat vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $624 149d
Knicks vs. Kings BUY Knicks 80¢ $219 157d
Knicks vs. Kings BUY Knicks 80¢ $167 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,498.59 · official $1,498.59 (match) · 101 history records