Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6166…236a crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-7%) realized −$74 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$69
other 6% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +7.6% -2.7% 38% 38% -29.2%
≤30d 34 +7.6% -2.7% 38% 38% -29.2%
≤90d 34 +7.6% -2.7% 38% 38% -29.2%
all 34 +7.6% -2.7% 38% 38% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 38% -29.2%
10% -12.0% 35% -36.0%
15% -20.5% 26% -42.2%
20% -28.3% 26% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 5¢ 50¢ $4 $37 +$33 (+826%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$49 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$46 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$12 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$54 +1014%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$21 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.41 · official $42.41 (match) · 105 history records