Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6165…a01a world 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%72W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$232
14 days−$329
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$99
other 7% +$106
politics 6% +$130
finance 6% −$181
crypto 2% −$96
sports 2% −$112
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.4% -28.9% 44% 33% -25.7%
≤30d 21 -24.8% -31.9% 43% 33% -24.7%
≤90d 94 -11.5% -19.9% 53% 44% -9.9%
all 137 -11.7% -20.1% 53% 39% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 39% -10.0%
10% -27.7% 25% -18.6%
15% -34.7% 16% -26.5%
20% -41.1% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$42 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses72 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage106d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 84¢ 96¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $100 −$47 -47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $100 −$80 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$23 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$116 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $400 −$130 -32%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $100 −$43 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $100 −$92 -92%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $200 −$31 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$85 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $110 +$96 +87%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $10 −$8 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $100 −$54 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $100 −$76 -76%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $300 +$97 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $50 −$38 -76%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 12 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 11 $101 +$9 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026 May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? May 09 $300 +$103 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 29 $300 +$111 +37%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Apr 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 24 $100 +$21 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 23 $300 +$31 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$18 +18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 21 $400 −$188 -47%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $150 +$19 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $100 −$48 -48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $100 +$44 +44%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $100 −$33 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $200 +$132 +66%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $200 −$115 -57%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 14 $350 −$138 -40%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 14 $50 −$20 -41%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 14 $20 −$9 -47%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 Apr 12 $340 +$148 +44%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $200 +$94 +47%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $200 +$54 +27%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $100 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $53 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $20 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $316 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $107 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $140 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $100 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $100 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $101 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $200 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $115 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 50¢ $57 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $8 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 77¢ $109 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $15 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $100 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 46¢ $61 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $100 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 76¢ $100 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.55 · official $113.55 (match) · 350 history records