Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6165…09ba world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
politics 15% $0
other 11% −$1
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 0% -9.3%
all 31 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage256d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $62 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $120 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $22 $0 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $21 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 08 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $46 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $40 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $16 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $62 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.19 · official $34.19 (match) · 219 history records