Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$10

14 days+$10

30 days+$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$315	$347	+$32 (+10%)
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$300	$325	+$25 (+8%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$289	$318	+$29 (+10%)
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$56	$61	+$5 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$50	$55	+$5 (+9%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$37	$46	+$9 (+25%)
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$31	$34	+$3 (+10%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$27	$30	+$3 (+12%)
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$26	$28	+$2 (+7%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$20	$21	+$2 (+8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$17	$19	+$2 (+12%)
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$17	$18	+$1 (+5%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$9	$10	+$1 (+8%)
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$7	−$2 (-25%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$6	+$0 (+9%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+6%)
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$1	$2	+$0 (+10%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Jun 10	$25	+$10	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

culture 75% +$88

other 25% +$36

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	1m
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	5m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	5m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	7m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	10m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	10m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	10m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	14m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	16m
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	16m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	19m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	29m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	30m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	31m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	32m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	33m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	33m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	33m
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	39m
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	40m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	40m
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	42m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	45m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	46m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	47m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	48m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	48m
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	48m
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	51m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	53m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+27.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+41.0%	+27.6%	100%	100%	+27.6%
≤30d	1	+41.0%	+27.6%	100%	100%	+27.6%
≤90d	1	+41.0%	+27.6%	100%	100%	+27.6%
all	1	+41.0%	+27.6%	100%	100%	+27.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover1524.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+27.6%	100%	+27.6%
10% ← realistic here	+15.4%	100%	+15.4%
15%	+4.2%	100%	+4.2%
20%	-6.0%	0%	-6.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.