trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 45% | 45% | +9.3% |
| ≤30d | 21 | -17.6% | -25.4% | 43% | 38% | +8.5% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -17.5% | -25.3% | 42% | 38% | +3.7% |
| all | 24 | -17.5% | -25.3% | 42% | 38% | +3.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.3% | 38% | +3.7% |
| 10% | -32.5% | 38% | -6.2% |
| 15% | -39.0% | 33% | -15.3% |
| 20% | -45.0% | 21% | -23.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $40 | $45 | +$5 (+13%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 11¢ | $35 | $43 | +$8 (+23%) |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-13%) |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 32¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-8%) |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 28¢ | 11¢ | $30 | $12 | −$18 (-59%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-44%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $71 | +$30 | +43% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 16 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $6 | +$10 | +162% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on | Jun 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Jun 14 | $31 | +$20 | +67% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on | Jun 14 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$6 | +41% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $21 | +$56 | +274% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $8 | −$8 | -93% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 11 | $20 | −$19 | -96% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Jun 05 | $16 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $142 | +$78 | +55% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $41 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the | May 30 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | May 30 | $31 | +$15 | +50% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | May 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | May 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the | May 30 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? | May 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | May 24 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Circle Internet (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? | May 13 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap | May 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | Apr 29 | $10 | +$15 | +150% |