Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
61 0x615d…bd5b sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,899 (+9%) realized +$619 · open +$1,280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$267est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,638
other 5% +$1,385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤30d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤90d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -0.8%
all 40 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 50% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 50% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 48% -10.3%
15% -27.8% 32% -18.9%
20% -34.9% 28% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$727) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$270 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4,755
Realized+$619
Unrealized+$1,280
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$267
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 63¢ 98¢ $2,370 $3,656 +$1,286 (+54%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 49¢ 50¢ $548 $552 +$4 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 63¢ 68¢ $413 $450 +$37 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Red Feet 33¢ 32¢ $93 $88 −$4 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Isurus 57¢ 31¢ $14 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $1,384 +$658 +48%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $526 +$510 +97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $539 +$334 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,082 −$37 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $1,087 −$37 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 26 $1,525 −$144 -10%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $236 −$232 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $312 +$81 +26%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $123 +$231 +188%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $333 +$108 +32%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $619 −$606 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $479 +$728 +152%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $753 +$1,304 +173%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 25 $664 −$657 -99%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $24 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $79 +$21 +27%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $68 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $395 +$439 +111%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,114 −$1,099 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 24 $264 −$259 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $132 −$130 -99%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 24 $190 −$186 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $853 −$348 -41%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $562 −$14 -2%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $45 +$15 +32%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $46 +$18 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen Jun 24 $731 −$727 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $929 +$1,102 +119%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $64 +$16 +26%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $605 −$599 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $361 +$197 +55%
Sawangkaew vs. Stoiana: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $47 −$47 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 23 $122 −$121 -99%
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 23 $45 −$45 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $605 +$425 +70%
Valorant: Joblife vs CGN Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $122 +$35 +29%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $161 +$81 +51%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 23 $78 −$76 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $756 +$831 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Red Feet 33¢ $95 5m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $1,161 42m
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 59¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 59¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 67¢ $214 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $515 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $1,235 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 67¢ $1,381 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $526 6h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 57¢ $7 10h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 57¢ $7 10h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY MODUS 26¢ $2 12h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 34¢ $145 14h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner BUY So:sweet 34¢ $91 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $312 16h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $539 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 30¢ $619 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ $664 22h
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY Ghools Esports 34¢ $24 24h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 75¢ $333 24h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 51¢ $1,064 25h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $526 25h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $533 25h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $556 25h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner BUY Isurus 51¢ $554 25h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 61¢ $46 31h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 62¢ $189 32h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 68¢ $226 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $479 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,754.51 · official $4,754.51 (match) · 96 history records