Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

61
0x615a…7465
other · 119 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$32 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage124d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 58¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Spurs vs. 76ers 76ers 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Bulls 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Heat vs. 76ers Heat 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Nets Nets 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $279 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $255 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $396 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $760 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $424 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $259 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $246 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $252 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $445 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $530 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$17
politics 25% −$14
sports 14% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $255 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $188 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 20d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $254 21d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $254 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $208 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $208 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 23d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $216 23d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $216 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 26d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 27d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 27d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $250 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 359 history records