Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6159…bfa7 politics 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% $0
world 32% −$2
other 13% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 34 +0.2% -9.4% 24% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage285d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $35 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $51 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $4 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $21 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a C Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $37 17m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $24 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $35 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $7 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $35 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $32 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $28 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $30 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records