Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6158…fc2a other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$45
sports 24% −$23
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$14
economics 5% −$3
world 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage135d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $536 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $703 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $326 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $509 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $338 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $442 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $282 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $257 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $247 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 7h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 15h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 20h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 31h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $11 32h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 32h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 34h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 35h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 36h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 41h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 42h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 45h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $3 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1447 history records