Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
61 0x6157…9fb4 sports 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$154,732 (+17%) realized +$164,208 · open −$9,476
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%172W / 120L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$3,137per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$11,239est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,844
7 days+$32,381
14 days+$54,798
30 days+$105,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$148,013
other 5% −$4,090
world 1% −$6,732
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +24.3% +12.4% 61% 61% +5.5%
≤30d 143 +18.1% +6.9% 59% 59% +8.4%
≤90d 273 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 57% +3.3%
all 292 +12.2% +1.5% 59% 59% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 59% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 59% -4.9%
15% -17.1% 59% -14.1%
20% -25.2% 56% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,348) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,735 vs −$2,699 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$7,546
Realized+$164,208
Unrealized−$9,476
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses172 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11,239
Open positions3
Markets (closed)292 / 296
History coverage95d
Avg bet$3,137
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 44¢ $7,623 $7,538 −$85 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 0¢ $5,565 $5 −$5,560 (-100%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $3,835 $3 −$3,832 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,569 +$3,931 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7,003 +$5,496 +78%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $14,931 +$10,043 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10,201 +$9,879 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $16,200 −$16,200 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $20,270 +$16,094 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6,851 −$6,732 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9,773 +$17,333 +177%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20,265 −$20,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,073 −$5,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,811 −$4,750 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,029 −$3,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,040 −$3,000 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2,525 −$2,500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,537 −$2,500 -99%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,518 +$1,015 +67%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5,075 +$4,962 +98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,672 +$1,328 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,816 −$1,785 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4,425 +$3,075 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,040 +$2,414 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $1,520 +$1,149 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10,156 +$10,677 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $7,591 −$7,500 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3,049 +$3,473 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,037 +$2,048 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3,544 +$2,490 +70%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $512 +$2,426 +473%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,226 +$1,423 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $10,141 +$8,727 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $10,134 −$476 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $2,530 +$1,649 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $6,586 +$5,021 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $4,059 +$3,784 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $3,175 +$2,325 +73%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $2,190 −$2,160 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3,044 +$2,838 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $5,069 +$4,190 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $4,060 +$3,932 +97%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $3,944 +$2,346 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $2,843 −$2,800 -98%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $3,043 −$187 -6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $14,954 +$12,361 +83%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $3,042 −$3,000 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 0m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $83 1m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $7,661 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,875 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5,643 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,569 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2,458 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $793 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3,753 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $24,974 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $14,931 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20,079 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10,201 31h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $198 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $360 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $22 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $558 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,935 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $535 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $594 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $270 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $22 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $87 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $71 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,546.48 · official $7,546.48 (match) · 624 history records