Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6153…9940 other 110 markets active 4h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$164 (-1%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days−$187
14 days−$179
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$12
world 10% +$101
other 7% −$254
tech 5% −$12
sports 5% +$4
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.0% -28.5% 22% 11% -15.3%
≤30d 107 -4.3% -13.4% 11% 2% -10.2%
≤90d 107 -4.3% -13.4% 11% 2% -10.2%
all 107 -4.3% -13.4% 11% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 2% -10.2%
10% -21.7% 2% -18.8%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.7%
20% -36.2% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$27 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage26d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $362 −$266 -73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $300 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $28 +$74 +262%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $372 −$12 -3%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $32 +$1 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $379 −$3 -1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $300 +$79 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $293 +$8 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $290 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $290 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $290 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $290 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $300 −$25 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $320 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 01 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 14¢ $44 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 99¢ $318 9h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 10h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL No 2¢ $5 10h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL No 2¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Will BUY 66¢ $61 45h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $360 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 5¢ $0 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $372 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 97¢ $32 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $158 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $218 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.42 · official $52.42 (match) · 286 history records