Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6153…2134 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$13
sports 41% +$16
world 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 23% +2.0%
≤30d 31 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 23% -5.8%
≤90d 31 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 23% -5.8%
all 31 -3.0% -12.2% 26% 23% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 23% -5.8%
10% -20.6% 23% -14.8%
15% -28.3% 23% -23.1%
20% -35.3% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)31 / 56
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+167%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +413%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 35m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 39m
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 41m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 29¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes $1 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes $1 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.58 · official $27.59 (match) · 70 history records