Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6153…44ab other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2018 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 46L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day2017.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$8
world 34% +$27
politics 19% −$4
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2018 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 52 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 52 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
all 52 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2017.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$986) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×14.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$802
Trades / day2017.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $1,253 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,228 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $1,745 +$29 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,343 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,470 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $738 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $836 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $6,978 −$3 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $414 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $1,135 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $629 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,412 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $993 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,742 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $419 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $772 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $418 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $625 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $985 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $120 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $986 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $814 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1,501 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $121 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $893 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $169 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $328 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $789 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,474 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $29 5m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 24m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 24m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 29m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $31 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 33m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $29 35m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $29 36m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $29 36m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $29 39m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $29 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.93 · official $248.13 (match) · 3500 history records