Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
61 0x6151…2d2d crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,308 (-10%) realized −$1,308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%262W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$56
14 days+$86
30 days−$1,151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$107
politics 27% −$1,634
other 13% +$208
sports 6% −$155
world 2% −$11
economics 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -26.4% -33.4% 42% 42% -2.3%
≤30d 56 -17.3% -25.1% 43% 43% -41.6%
≤90d 177 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 40% -28.1%
all 564 -5.1% -14.2% 46% 45% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 45% -20.6%
10% -22.4% 43% -28.2%
15% -29.9% 41% -35.1%
20% -36.8% 38% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses262 / 302
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)564 / 564
History coverage165d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 564 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$70 -70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $35 +$28 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $35 +$23 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $240 +$104 +43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 +$25 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$16 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$43 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$15 +180%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 +$27 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $108 +$96 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Jun 14 $722 −$722 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 20¢ $31 53m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 70¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 7h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 28h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $36 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $147 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1648 history records